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Article 10 · The record

Hail, storm, and what the record actually shows

Numbers with a source attached, and an honest account of what each one does not measure.

Storm marketing in this metro runs on statistics with no citation. What follows is the opposite: a small number of figures, each attributed, each with its limitations stated. If you are trying to work out whether your roof has a real problem, the record is useful context and it is not a substitute for somebody looking at the roof.

01

Hail

What NOAA logged for this county

NOAA's Storm Events Database recorded 125 hail events in St. Louis County between 2020 and 2025. The largest stone measured was 2.5 inches. The average across those events was 1.32 inches. For comparison within the same period and the same database: St. Charles County logged 54, Jefferson County 44 and Franklin County 30.

What that number is not

It is a count of reported events, not of insured losses and not of damaged roofs. Reporting density tracks population, because reports come from people. A dense county with a lot of spotters and a lot of insurance activity generates more entries than an empty one experiencing the same weather. The county comparison above should be read with that firmly in mind: some of the gap between 125 and 30 is meteorology and some of it is simply how many people were standing outside.

What survives that caveat is still meaningful. Hail of an inch and a third, arriving repeatedly across a handful of years, is a real load on an asphalt roof, and the seasonality is sharp: April and May carry roughly 56 percent of the metro's annual hail reports according to NOAA Storm Prediction Center climatology for this area.

02

May 2025

The tornado, precisely as recorded

On 16 May 2025 an EF3 tornado moved through the St. Louis area. The National Weather Service rated it EF3 with estimated peak winds of 152 miles per hour. It began near Clayton at about 2:41 in the afternoon and travelled a path of 22.6 miles, with a maximum width of 1.8 miles, which makes it the widest tornado in the region's modern record, a record that begins in 1950. Five people were killed. The damage figure of 1.6 billion dollars comes from NCEI rather than from the Weather Service rating.

The federal disaster declaration that followed, DR-4877-MO, covered St. Louis City and St. Louis County. Under it, FEMA recorded 9,427 individual assistance approvals, 58.13 million dollars in Individuals and Households Program funds, and 105.01 million dollars in public assistance.

Separately, the Missouri Department of Commerce and Insurance reported 253,241 catastrophic claims from the 2025 season, with more than 2.9 billion dollars paid, roughly 83 percent of it residential. That figure is published at insurance.mo.gov and covers the whole state and the whole season rather than any single event.

Original plank sheathing exposed after a tear off, with open gaps between the boards and rows of old nail holes across the wood
Plate 01After a storm season the question on an older house is rarely only about the shingle surface. What the boards underneath have been doing for years is at least as relevant, and they are only visible once.
03

Context

Two national rankings that are often merged

Missouri appears in two separate national hail rankings and they measure different things, so they should not be run together into a single claim.

  • The Insurance Information Institute, citing NOAA Storm Prediction Center data, placed Missouri fifth nationally for major hail events, with 253 in 2025. That is a count of weather events.
  • State Farm separately ranked Missouri second nationally in hail claim dollars paid. That is a count of money, from one insurer's book.

Those are two different measurements from two different sources and neither one implies the other. A page that combines them into one sentence is manufacturing a statistic.

04

A live deadline

RSMo 135.445, and why it has a date on it

One genuinely useful and largely unadvertised thing: Missouri created a state tax credit equal to a homestead insurance deductible incurred in 2025. The credit is capped at 5,000 dollars, it is transferable, and it is written with an expiry. No new credits are authorised after 15 October 2026.

This is a tax matter, not a roofing matter, and it belongs with your accountant rather than with a contractor. It is mentioned here for one reason: it is real, it is dated, and almost nobody in this trade is telling homeowners it exists. If you carried a deductible on a 2025 loss, it is worth ten minutes of a professional's time to ask about.

What Keys does and does not do here

Missouri law (RSMo 407.725) bars a roofing contractor from representing or negotiating on a property owner's insurance claim, and Keys does not do so. What Keys does is document the roof with photographs and measurements, provide a written scope, and attend on site as the contractor. The claim, the policy and the tax question all remain yours. Nothing on this page is legal, insurance or tax advice.

05

Afterwards

What to do in the week after a storm

  1. Photograph everything from the ground, dated. Downed limbs, dents in gutters and vents, granule accumulation at downspout outlets, anything on the lawn. Ground level evidence is useful and it is safe to collect.
  2. Do not climb on it. A steep roof with hail on it is not a place to be, and a roof that has just been hit is often less sound than it looks.
  3. Get a written condition report. Photographs, measurements, and a plain statement of what is damaged and what is not. Yours to keep.
  4. Read your own policy. Coverage questions belong to you and your insurer. See also matching an older roof honestly, since mismatch is where a partial roof loss usually becomes contentious.
  5. Do not sign in a hurry. The urgency is being manufactured. Details in how to vet a roofing contractor.

Elsewhere in this file

Article 02

What actually ages a roof here

Freeze and thaw working the same fastener in two directions across one year, and why the field of the roof is rarely what fails.

Article 03

Permits and the municipality

What St. Louis County requires, what a municipality can add on top of it, and the fact that Missouri issues no roofing licence at all.

Article 04

What a written scope contains

Fourteen things that belong on the page before anyone climbs a ladder, including the one number that always moves after the tear-off.

Article 05

Mature tree cover and the roof

Oak canopy is the reason to live here and it is also an abrasive, a dam, and a moisture trap. What it does and what it does not do.

Article 06

Matching an older roof honestly

Missouri has no matching law for roofs. What that means in practice, and how an honest contractor talks about a discontinued profile.

Article 07

Gutters and drainage on a large house

The undersized gutter is the classic failure on a big steep roof, and it is almost always a sizing decision, not a workmanship one.

Article 08

How to vet a roofing contractor

The questions that actually separate one bid from another, and the four sales behaviours that should end a conversation.

Article 09

Where a roofer is registered

There is no roofing company with a registered address in Ladue. That fact is worth understanding rather than hiding.

Article 11

The work, and how to start it

Roofing, gutters and downspouts. What Keys does, what Keys does not do, and what happens after you call.

Ask about your roof

After a storm, get it written down

Photographs, measurements and a plain condition report. Yours to keep either way.

Keys documents the roof and attends as the contractor. The claim stays with you and your insurer.

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